APEX picks
Tainara Lisboa versus Lucia Szabova — Lisboa to win
58% Lisboa · 42% Szabova58%
Lean call — near even
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this bout, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected — it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsLisboa: 2-2Szabova: 1-0Leans toward Szabova.
Layoff — Szabovasince the last boutLisboa: —Szabova: 62 moLeans toward Lisboa.
Durability (KO losses)times stopped in the UFCLisboa: 1Szabova: 0Leans toward Szabova.
Finish rateof career winsLisboa: 50%Szabova: 0%Leans toward Lisboa.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickLisboa: 7-4-0Szabova: 1-0-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
UFC samplethin on one sideLisboa: 54′Szabova: 1′Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Lisboa leads on layoff — szabova; Szabova leads on recent form (last 5) and durability (ko losses).
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Thin UFC sample on at least one side, so the read is damped toward an even fight before the probability is formed.
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