APEX picks
Sean Brady versus Gabriel Bonfim — Bonfim to win
48% Brady · 52% Bonfim52%
Lean call — near even
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this bout, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected — it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsBrady: 4-1Bonfim: 5-0Leans toward Bonfim.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledBrady: 47%Bonfim: 15%Leans toward Brady.
Ageyears oldBrady: 33Bonfim: 29Leans toward Bonfim.
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minBrady: 3.6Bonfim: 2.5Leans toward Brady.
Level of competitionwho they have actually beatenBrady: 1872Bonfim: 1455Leans toward Brady.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwBrady: 53%Bonfim: 48%Leans toward Brady.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickBrady: 19-2-0Bonfim: 20-1-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Bonfim leads on recent form (last 5) and age; Brady leads on control time.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
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Sign in Swept 11 + 8 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of