APEX picks
Merab Dvalishvili versus Petr Yan — Yan to win
45% Dvalishvili · 55% Yan55%
Lean call — near even
Capped at 85% by design
APEX reads55%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged62%Yan -180
AgreesBoth sides favour Yan; the line is 6 points more confident than APEX. Shown for comparison — the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why — the drivers
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minDvalishvili: 6.0Yan: 1.7Leans toward Dvalishvili.
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsDvalishvili: 4-1Yan: 4-1Leans toward Yan.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledDvalishvili: 36%Yan: 15%Leans toward Dvalishvili.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwDvalishvili: 42%Yan: 55%Leans toward Yan.
Knockdown powerknockdowns / 15 minDvalishvili: 0.05Yan: 0.53Leans toward Yan.
Grappling vs takedown Dthe wall to get throughDvalishvili: 76%Yan: 86%Leans toward Yan.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickDvalishvili: 21-5-0Yan: 20-5-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Yan leads on recent form (last 5); Dvalishvili leads on takedown pace and control time.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
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Sign in Swept 17 + 16 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of