APEX picks
Alexander Volkanovski versus Movsar Evloev — Evloev to win
37% Volkanovski · 63% Evloev63%
Solid confidence
Capped at 85% by design
APEX reads63%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged50%Evloev -108
DisagreesThe line makes Volkanovski the favourite; APEX has Evloev 13 points higher than the market does. Shown for comparison — the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsVolkanovski: 3-2Evloev: 5-0Leans toward Evloev.
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minVolkanovski: 1.6Evloev: 4.8Leans toward Evloev.
Ageyears oldVolkanovski: 37Evloev: 32Leans toward Evloev.
Striking volumesig. strikes landed / minVolkanovski: 6.0Evloev: 3.9Leans toward Volkanovski.
Level of competitionwho they have actually beatenVolkanovski: 1762Evloev: 850Leans toward Volkanovski.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwVolkanovski: 57%Evloev: 48%Leans toward Volkanovski.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickVolkanovski: 28-4-0Evloev: 20-0-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Evloev leads on all 3 of the strongest terms here — recent form (last 5), takedown pace and age.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
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Sign in Swept 18 + 10 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of