APEX picks
Robert Bryczek versus Rodolfo Vieira — Vieira to win
45% Bryczek · 55% Vieira55%
Lean call — near even
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this bout, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected — it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why — the drivers
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minBryczek: 0.4Vieira: 2.9Leans toward Vieira.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledBryczek: 5%Vieira: 31%Leans toward Vieira.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwBryczek: 38%Vieira: 54%Leans toward Vieira.
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsBryczek: 1-2Vieira: 2-3Leans toward Bryczek.
Durability (KO losses)times stopped in the UFCBryczek: 0Vieira: 1Leans toward Bryczek.
Reachhow far they can hit fromBryczek: 75"Vieira: 73"Leans toward Bryczek.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickBryczek: 18-7-0Vieira: 11-5-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
UFC samplethin on one sideBryczek: 42′Vieira: 115′Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Vieira leads on all 3 of the strongest terms here — takedown pace, control time and striking accuracy.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Thin UFC sample on at least one side, so the read is damped toward an even fight before the probability is formed.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
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Sign in Swept 3 + 11 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of