APEX picks
Raoni Barcelos versus Raul Rosas Jr. — Rosas Jr. to win
44% Barcelos · 56% Rosas Jr.56%
Lean call — near even
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this bout, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected — it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why — the drivers
Ageyears oldBarcelos: 39Rosas Jr.: 21Leans toward Rosas Jr..
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minBarcelos: 2.5Rosas Jr.: 6.8Leans toward Rosas Jr..
Striking volumesig. strikes landed / minBarcelos: 4.7Rosas Jr.: 1.3Leans toward Barcelos.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledBarcelos: 25%Rosas Jr.: 57%Leans toward Rosas Jr..
Grappling vs takedown Dthe wall to get throughBarcelos: 88%Rosas Jr.: 33%Leans toward Barcelos.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwBarcelos: 52%Rosas Jr.: 41%Leans toward Barcelos.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickBarcelos: 22-5-0Rosas Jr.: 12-1-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Rosas Jr. leads on age and takedown pace; Barcelos leads on striking volume.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
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