APEX picks
Deiveson Figueiredo versus Payton Talbott — Talbott to win
24% Figueiredo · 76% Talbott76%
Strong confidence
Capped at 85% by design
APEX reads76%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged81%Talbott -550
AgreesBoth sides favour Talbott; the line is 5 points more confident than APEX. Shown for comparison — the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsFigueiredo: 1-4Talbott: 4-1Leans toward Talbott.
Ageyears oldFigueiredo: 38Talbott: 27Leans toward Talbott.
Striking volumesig. strikes landed / minFigueiredo: 2.6Talbott: 5.9Leans toward Talbott.
Submission threatattempts / 15 minFigueiredo: 1.2Talbott: 0.2Leans toward Figueiredo.
Durability (KO losses)times stopped in the UFCFigueiredo: 2Talbott: 0Leans toward Talbott.
Reachhow far they can hit fromFigueiredo: 68"Talbott: 70.5"Leans toward Talbott.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickFigueiredo: 25-7-1Talbott: 11-1-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Talbott leads on all 3 of the strongest terms here — recent form (last 5), age and striking volume.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
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Sign in Swept 22 + 6 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of