APEX picks
Arman Tsarukyan versus Mauricio Ruffy — Tsarukyan to win
63% Tsarukyan · 37% Ruffy63%
Solid confidence
Capped at 85% by design
APEX reads63%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged74%Tsarukyan -340
AgreesBoth sides favour Tsarukyan; the line is 11 points more confident than APEX. Shown for comparison — the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsTsarukyan: 5-0Ruffy: 4-1Leans toward Tsarukyan.
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minTsarukyan: 3.3Ruffy: 0.0Leans toward Tsarukyan.
Knockdown powerknockdowns / 15 minTsarukyan: 0.31Ruffy: 2.06Leans toward Ruffy.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledTsarukyan: 42%Ruffy: 4%Leans toward Tsarukyan.
Level of competitionwho they have actually beatenTsarukyan: 1628Ruffy: 677Leans toward Tsarukyan.
Finish rateof career winsTsarukyan: 50%Ruffy: 80%Leans toward Ruffy.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickTsarukyan: 23-3-0Ruffy: 14-2-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Tsarukyan leads on recent form (last 5) and takedown pace; Ruffy leads on knockdown power.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
How it likely ends
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Sign in Swept 12 + 6 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of