APEX picks
Alexandre Pantoja versus Joshua Van — Van to win
30% Pantoja · 70% Van70%
Strong confidence
Capped at 85% by design
APEX reads70%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged52%Van -120
AgreesBoth sides favour Van; APEX is 17 points more confident than the line. Shown for comparison — the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsPantoja: 4-1Van: 5-0Leans toward Van.
Ageyears oldPantoja: 36Van: 24Leans toward Van.
Striking volumesig. strikes landed / minPantoja: 4.4Van: 8.4Leans toward Van.
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minPantoja: 2.8Van: 0.8Leans toward Pantoja.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledPantoja: 32%Van: 7%Leans toward Pantoja.
Level of competitionwho they have actually beatenPantoja: 646Van: 1096Leans toward Van.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickPantoja: 30-6-0Van: 17-2-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Van leads on all 3 of the strongest terms here — recent form (last 5), age and striking volume.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
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Sign in Swept 18 + 11 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of