APEX picks
Nate Landwehr versus Mandel Nallo — Landwehr to win
61% Landwehr · 39% Nallo61%
Solid confidence
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this bout, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected — it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsLandwehr: 1-4Nallo: 0-1Leans toward Nallo.
Durability (KO losses)times stopped in the UFCLandwehr: 5Nallo: 1Leans toward Landwehr.
Finish rateof career winsLandwehr: 60%Nallo: 0%Leans toward Landwehr.
Reachhow far they can hit fromLandwehr: 72"Nallo: 75"Leans toward Nallo.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickLandwehr: 18-8-0Nallo: 14-4-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
UFC samplethin on one sideLandwehr: 103′Nallo: 2′Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Landwehr leads on durability (ko losses) and finish rate; Nallo leads on recent form (last 5).
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Thin UFC sample on at least one side, so the read is damped toward an even fight before the probability is formed.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
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