APEX picks
Mike Malott versus Joaquin Buckley — Malott to win
66% Malott · 34% Buckley66%
Solid confidence
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this bout, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected — it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsMalott: 4-1Buckley: 3-2Leans toward Malott.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwMalott: 52%Buckley: 36%Leans toward Malott.
Level of competitionwho they have actually beatenMalott: 525Buckley: 975Leans toward Buckley.
Reachhow far they can hit fromMalott: 73"Buckley: 76"Leans toward Buckley.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledMalott: 16%Buckley: 11%Leans toward Malott.
Durability (KO losses)times stopped in the UFCMalott: 1Buckley: 3Leans toward Malott.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickMalott: 14-2-1Buckley: 21-8-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Malott leads on recent form (last 5) and striking accuracy; Buckley leads on level of competition.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
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Sign in Swept 8 + 17 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of