APEX picks
Jean Silva versus Jose Miguel Delgado — Delgado to win
46% Silva · 54% Delgado54%
Lean call — near even
Capped at 85% by design
APEX reads54%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged22%Delgado +330
DisagreesThe line makes Silva the favourite; APEX has Delgado 31 points higher than the market does. Shown for comparison — the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why — the drivers
Durability (KO losses)times stopped in the UFCSilva: 1Delgado: 0Leans toward Delgado.
Reachhow far they can hit fromSilva: 69"Delgado: 73"Leans toward Delgado.
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsSilva: 4-1Delgado: 4-1Leans toward Delgado.
Finish rateof career winsSilva: 83%Delgado: 50%Leans toward Silva.
Striking volumesig. strikes landed / minSilva: 4.6Delgado: 6.0Leans toward Delgado.
Submission threatattempts / 15 minSilva: 0.8Delgado: 0.0Leans toward Silva.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickSilva: 17-3-0Delgado: 12-2-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
UFC samplethin on one sideSilva: 60′Delgado: 48′Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Delgado leads on all 3 of the strongest terms here — durability (ko losses), reach and recent form (last 5).
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Thin UFC sample on at least one side, so the read is damped toward an even fight before the probability is formed.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
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Sign in Swept 7 + 5 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of