Red Corner
Kelvin
Gastelum
Gastelum
21-11-0 Southpaw · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Yousri
Belgaroui
Belgaroui
10-3-0 Orthodox · Netherlands
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgaroui | 52% | 9% | 24% |
| Gastelum | 6% | 2% | 7% |
Goes the distance31%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 20 and 2. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Belgaroui by KO/TKO (52%). 69% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Belgaroui
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 5-0
favors Belgaroui
Career record: 21-11-0 vs 10-3-0
favors Belgaroui
Reach: 71.5" vs 79"
favors Belgaroui
Striking accuracy: 44% vs 64%
favors Belgaroui
Striking volume: 3.7/min vs 6.1/min
favors Belgaroui
Finish rate: 33% vs 80% of wins
favors Belgaroui
Swept 20 / 13 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:09 AM ET