Red Corner
Curtis
Blaydes
Blaydes
19-6-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Waldo
Cortes Acosta
Cortes Acosta
17-3-0 Orthodox · Dominican Republic
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cortes Acosta | 31% | 8% | 23% |
| Blaydes | 18% | 4% | 16% |
Goes the distance39%
Round projection
Goes the distance
Veteran read Two seasoned veterans (20 and 13 UFC bouts), but the styles point to the scorecards.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (31%). 61% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Cortes Acosta
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 3-2
favors Cortes Acosta
Takedown pace: 5.2/15min vs 0.4/15min
favors Blaydes
Career record: 19-6-0 vs 17-3-0
favors Cortes Acosta
Durability (KO losses): 4 vs 0 in UFC
favors Cortes Acosta
Knockdown power: 0.16/15min vs 0.70/15min
favors Cortes Acosta
Striking volume: 4.3/min vs 5.3/min
favors Cortes Acosta
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:09 AM ET