Red Corner
Tim
Elliott
Elliott
22-14-1 Southpaw · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Édgar
Cháirez
Cháirez
14-6-0 Orthodox · Mexico
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cháirez | 29% | 32% | 15% |
| Elliott | 6% | 6% | 12% |
Goes the distance27%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 15 and 7. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Cháirez by Submission (32%). 73% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Cháirez
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 4-1
favors Cháirez
Age: 39 vs 30
favors Cháirez
Takedown pace: 3.1/15min vs 0.0/15min
favors Elliott
Career record: 22-14-1 vs 14-6-0
favors Cháirez
Reach: 66" vs 71"
favors Cháirez
Finish rate: 33% vs 92% of wins
favors Cháirez
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:01 AM ET