Red Corner
Brandon
Moreno
Moreno
23-10-2 Orthodox · Mexico
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Joseph
Morales
Morales
15-2-0 Switch · USA
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morales | 26% | 31% | 24% |
| Moreno | 7% | 3% | 8% |
Goes the distance32%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 18 and 5; Moreno's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Morales by Submission (31%). 68% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Morales
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 5-0
favors Morales
Career record: 23-10-2 vs 15-2-0
favors Morales
Submission threat: 0.3/15min vs 3.0/15min
favors Morales
Striking volume: 3.8/min vs 2.0/min
favors Moreno
Reach: 70" vs 68"
favors Moreno
Knockdown power: 0.18/15min vs 0.38/15min
favors Morales
Swept 20 / 17 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:03 AM ET