FinalRodrigues def. Holmes — KO/TKO — Punch, Round 1, 0:15APEX called it ✓
APEX picks
Brandon Holmes versus Modestino Rodrigues — Rodrigues to win
15% Holmes · 85% Rodrigues85%
Strong confidence
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this bout, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected — it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsHolmes: 3-2Rodrigues: 5-0Leans toward Rodrigues.
Ageyears oldHolmes: 29Rodrigues: 22Leans toward Rodrigues.
Durability (KO losses)times stopped in the UFCHolmes: 2Rodrigues: 1Leans toward Rodrigues.
Finish rateof career winsHolmes: 67%Rodrigues: 100%Leans toward Rodrigues.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickHolmes: 6-2-0Rodrigues: 8-1-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Rodrigues leads on all 3 of the strongest terms here — recent form (last 5), age and durability (ko losses).
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
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Sign in Swept 8 + 9 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of