FinalUriel def. Piazzon — Submission — Guillotine Choke, Round 1, 0:50APEX had it wrong
APEX picks
Mario Piazzon versus Guilherme Uriel — Piazzon to win
73% Piazzon · 27% Uriel73%
Strong confidence
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this bout, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected — it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsPiazzon: 3-2Uriel: 4-1Leans toward Uriel.
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minPiazzon: 17.5Uriel: 0.0Leans toward Piazzon.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledPiazzon: 75%Uriel: 1%Leans toward Piazzon.
Durability (KO losses)times stopped in the UFCPiazzon: 1Uriel: 2Leans toward Piazzon.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwPiazzon: 74%Uriel: 44%Leans toward Piazzon.
Finish rateof career winsPiazzon: 75%Uriel: 100%Leans toward Uriel.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickPiazzon: 12-2-0Uriel: 8-2-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Piazzon leads on takedown pace and control time; Uriel leads on recent form (last 5).
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
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