FinalApodaca def. Mir — Decision - Unanimous, Round 3, 5:00APEX called it ✓
APEX picks
Bella Mir versus Alex Apodaca — Apodaca to win
49% Mir · 51% Apodaca51%
Lean call — near even
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this bout, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected — it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why — the drivers
Ageyears oldMir: 23Apodaca: 32Leans toward Mir.
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsMir: 4-1Apodaca: 4-1Leans toward Apodaca.
Finish rateof career winsMir: 75%Apodaca: 0%Leans toward Mir.
Reachhow far they can hit fromMir: 67"Apodaca: 71.5"Leans toward Apodaca.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickMir: 4-1-0Apodaca: 4-1-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
UFC samplethin on one sideMir: 15′Apodaca: 15′Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Apodaca leads on recent form (last 5); Mir leads on age and finish rate.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Thin UFC sample on at least one side, so the read is damped toward an even fight before the probability is formed.
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