FinalMiller def. Rodrigues — Submission — Von Flue Choke, Round 2, 1:04APEX had it wrong
APEX picks
Trent Miller versus Douglas Rodrigues — Rodrigues to win
44% Miller · 56% Rodrigues56%
Lean call — near even
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this bout, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected — it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsMiller: 4-1Rodrigues: 4-1Leans toward Miller.
Ageyears oldMiller: 30Rodrigues: 27Leans toward Rodrigues.
Durability (KO losses)times stopped in the UFCMiller: 1Rodrigues: 0Leans toward Rodrigues.
Reachhow far they can hit fromMiller: 72"Rodrigues: 74"Leans toward Rodrigues.
Finish rateof career winsMiller: 90%Rodrigues: 86%Leans toward Miller.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickMiller: 10-3-0Rodrigues: 7-2-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Rodrigues leads on age and durability (ko losses); Miller leads on recent form (last 5).
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
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Sign in Swept 13 + 9 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of