Red Corner
Steven
Asplund
Asplund
7-2-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Guilherme
Pat
Pat
6-1-0 Orthodox · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asplund | 36% | 6% | 13% |
| Pat | 23% | 5% | 18% |
Goes the distance30%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 2 and 2. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Asplund by KO/TKO (36%). 70% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Asplund
Striking volume: 10.0/min vs 2.7/min
favors Asplund
Career record: 7-2-0 vs 6-1-0
favors Pat
Age: 28 vs 32
favors Asplund
Knockdown power: 1.25/15min vs 0.00/15min
favors Asplund
Reach: 78" vs 81"
favors Pat
Striking accuracy: 52% vs 62%
favors Pat
Swept 9 / 7 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:11 AM ET