Red Corner
Diego
Ferreira
Ferreira
19-7-0 Orthodox · Brazil
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Billy
Quarantillo
Quarantillo
18-7-0 Orthodox · USA
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarantillo | 27% | 11% | 18% |
| Ferreira | 18% | 8% | 18% |
Goes the distance36%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — Ferreira's chin cracked in a recent fight; Quarantillo's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Quarantillo by KO/TKO (27%). 64% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Quarantillo
Layoff — Quarantillo: 20 months out
favors Ferreira
Striking volume: 4.7/min vs 7.4/min
favors Quarantillo
Striking accuracy: 40% vs 55%
favors Quarantillo
Age: 41 vs 37
favors Quarantillo
Reach: 74" vs 70"
favors Ferreira
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 2-3
favors Ferreira
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:11 AM ET