Red Corner
Bruno
Lopes
Lopes
14-3-0 Orthodox · Brazil
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Diyar
Nurgozhay
Nurgozhay
11-2-0 Southpaw · Kazakhstan
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nurgozhay | 31% | 11% | 22% |
| Lopes | 15% | 9% | 12% |
Goes the distance34%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 3 and 3; Lopes's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Nurgozhay by KO/TKO (31%). 66% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Nurgozhay
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 3-2
favors Nurgozhay
Age: 33 vs 29
favors Nurgozhay
Durability (KO losses): 3 vs 0 in UFC
favors Nurgozhay
Striking accuracy: 43% vs 59%
favors Nurgozhay
Striking volume: 2.9/min vs 4.5/min
favors Nurgozhay
Career record: 14-3-0 vs 11-2-0
favors Nurgozhay
Swept 17 / 13 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:11 AM ET