Red Corner
Junior
Tafa
Tafa
7-6-0 Orthodox · Australia
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Ce
Liu
Liu
3-1-0 -- · China
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liu | 43% | 7% | 18% |
| Tafa | 21% | 3% | 7% |
Goes the distance25%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 9 and 0; Tafa's chin cracked in a recent fight; Liu's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Liu by KO/TKO (43%). 75% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Liu
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 3-1
favors Liu
Career record: 7-6-0 vs 3-1-0
favors Liu
Durability (KO losses): 2 vs 1 in UFC
favors Tafa
Reach: 75" vs 77.5"
favors Liu
Low data — thin UFC sample on at least one side; the model regresses toward the market line.
Swept 13 / 4 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:06 AM ET