Red Corner
Rei
Tsuruya
Tsuruya
11-1-0 Orthodox · Japan
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Kevin
Borjas
Borjas
11-5-0 Orthodox · Peru
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tsuruya | 31% | 24% | 25% |
| Borjas | 11% | 2% | 7% |
Goes the distance32%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 6 and 6; Borjas's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Tsuruya by KO/TKO (31%). 68% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Tsuruya
Career record: 11-1-0 vs 11-5-0
favors Tsuruya
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 2-3
favors Tsuruya
Takedown pace: 3.6/15min vs 0.0/15min
favors Tsuruya
Age: 24 vs 28
favors Tsuruya
Durability (KO losses): 0 vs 2 in UFC
favors Tsuruya
Knockdown power: 0.00/15min vs 0.49/15min
favors Borjas
Swept 12 / 16 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:04 AM ET