Red Corner
Alex
Perez
Perez
26-10-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji
19-7-0 Southpaw · China
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sumudaerji | 34% | 8% | 25% |
| Perez | 14% | 8% | 11% |
Goes the distance36%
Round projection
Finish — Round 1
Veteran read Sumudaerji's stoppages cluster in R1; Perez has been finished around R1 — the histograms meet at R1.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Sumudaerji by KO/TKO (34%). 64% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Sumudaerji
Recent form (last 5): 2-2-1 vs 3-1-1
favors Sumudaerji
Reach: 65.5" vs 72"
favors Sumudaerji
Age: 34 vs 30
favors Sumudaerji
Takedown pace: 1.8/15min vs 0.8/15min
favors Perez
Durability (KO losses): 2 vs 0 in UFC
favors Sumudaerji
Knockdown power: 0.71/15min vs 0.38/15min
favors Perez
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:05 AM ET