Red Corner
Yan
Xiaonan
Xiaonan
19-5-0 Orthodox · China
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Denise
Gomes
Gomes
12-3-0 Orthodox · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gomes | 39% | 10% | 29% |
| Xiaonan | 8% | 3% | 11% |
Goes the distance39%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 13 and 8. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Gomes by KO/TKO (39%). 61% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Gomes
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 4-1
favors Gomes
Age: 37 vs 26
favors Gomes
Layoff — Xiaonan: 16 months out
favors Gomes
Knockdown power: 0.15/15min vs 0.43/15min
favors Gomes
Takedown pace: 0.8/15min vs 1.4/15min
favors Gomes
Submission threat: 0.0/15min vs 0.7/15min
favors Gomes
Swept 20 / 15 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:04 AM ET