FinalYadong def. Nurmagomedov — KO/TKO — Punch, Round 2, 1:48APEX had it wrong
APEX picks
Song Yadong versus Umar Nurmagomedov — Nurmagomedov to win
29% Yadong · 71% Nurmagomedov71%
Strong confidence
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this bout, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected — it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsYadong: 3-2Nurmagomedov: 4-1Leans toward Nurmagomedov.
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minYadong: 0.8Nurmagomedov: 4.0Leans toward Nurmagomedov.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledYadong: 13%Nurmagomedov: 39%Leans toward Nurmagomedov.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwYadong: 44%Nurmagomedov: 56%Leans toward Nurmagomedov.
Knockdown powerknockdowns / 15 minYadong: 0.48Nurmagomedov: 0.12Leans toward Yadong.
Reachhow far they can hit fromYadong: 67"Nurmagomedov: 69"Leans toward Nurmagomedov.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickYadong: 24-9-1Nurmagomedov: 20-2-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Nurmagomedov leads on all 3 of the strongest terms here — recent form (last 5), takedown pace and control time.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
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Sign in Swept 17 + 9 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of