Red Corner
Song
Yadong
Yadong
23-9-1 Orthodox · China
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Umar
Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov
20-1-0 Orthodox · Russia
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
79%
Umar Nurmagomedov -470
Model reads
85%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -7
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nurmagomedov | 25% | 20% | 41% |
| Yadong | 6% | 2% | 5% |
Goes the distance46%
Round projection
Goes the distance
Veteran read Two seasoned veterans (17 and 9 UFC bouts), but the styles point to the scorecards.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Nurmagomedov by Decision (41%). 54% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Nurmagomedov
Career record: 23-9-1 vs 20-1-0
favors Nurmagomedov
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 4-1
favors Nurmagomedov
Takedown pace: 0.8/15min vs 4.0/15min
favors Nurmagomedov
Striking accuracy: 44% vs 56%
favors Nurmagomedov
Knockdown power: 0.48/15min vs 0.12/15min
favors Yadong
Reach: 67" vs 69"
favors Nurmagomedov
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:04 AM ET