FinalPetrino def. Spivac — Decision - Unanimous, Round 3, 5:00APEX called it ✓
APEX picks
Serghei Spivac versus Vitor Petrino — Petrino to win
27% Spivac · 73% Petrino73%
Strong confidence
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this bout, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected — it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsSpivac: 2-3Petrino: 4-1Leans toward Petrino.
Durability (KO losses)times stopped in the UFCSpivac: 4Petrino: 1Leans toward Petrino.
Knockdown powerknockdowns / 15 minSpivac: 0.00Petrino: 0.41Leans toward Petrino.
Grappling vs takedown Dthe wall to get throughSpivac: 53%Petrino: 82%Leans toward Petrino.
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minSpivac: 3.4Petrino: 3.0Leans toward Spivac.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwSpivac: 47%Petrino: 51%Leans toward Petrino.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickSpivac: 18-7-0Petrino: 15-2-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Petrino leads on all 3 of the strongest terms here — recent form (last 5), durability (ko losses) and knockdown power.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Variable form — recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
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Sign in Swept 16 + 10 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of