Red Corner
Serghei
Spivac
Spivac
18-6-0 Orthodox · Moldova
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Vitor
Petrino
Petrino
14-2-0 Orthodox · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrino | 36% | 13% | 22% |
| Spivac | 12% | 7% | 9% |
Goes the distance31%
Round projection
Finish — Round 1
Veteran read Petrino's stoppages cluster in R3; Spivac has been finished around R1 — the histograms meet at R1.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Petrino by KO/TKO (36%). 69% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Petrino
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 3-2
favors Petrino
Career record: 18-6-0 vs 14-2-0
favors Petrino
Knockdown power: 0.00/15min vs 0.58/15min
favors Petrino
Age: 31 vs 28
favors Petrino
Takedown pace: 3.8/15min vs 2.6/15min
favors Spivac
Durability (KO losses): 4 vs 1 in UFC
favors Petrino
Swept 20 / 16 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:14 AM ET