Red Corner
Roman
Dolidze
Dolidze
15-5-0 Orthodox · Georgia
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Reinier
de Ridder
de Ridder
21-4-0 Southpaw · Netherlands
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| de Ridder | 20% | 22% | 17% |
| Dolidze | 19% | 8% | 13% |
Goes the distance30%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 14 and 6; de Ridder's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: de Ridder by Submission (22%). 70% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors de Ridder
Career record: 15-5-0 vs 21-4-0
favors de Ridder
Age: 38 vs 35
favors de Ridder
Durability (KO losses): 0 vs 3 in UFC
favors Dolidze
Takedown pace: 1.2/15min vs 2.6/15min
favors de Ridder
Striking accuracy: 42% vs 49%
favors de Ridder
Reach: 76" vs 78"
favors de Ridder
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:13 AM ET