Red Corner
Anthony
Hernandez
Hernandez
15-3-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Gregory
Rodrigues
Rodrigues
19-6-0 Orthodox · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hernandez | 18% | 22% | 15% |
| Rodrigues | 26% | 6% | 12% |
Goes the distance28%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — Hernandez's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Rodrigues by KO/TKO (26%). 72% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Rodrigues
Takedown pace: 5.8/15min vs 1.9/15min
favors Hernandez
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 4-1
favors Rodrigues
Knockdown power: 0.11/15min vs 1.01/15min
favors Rodrigues
Career record: 15-3-0 vs 19-6-0
favors Hernandez
Striking accuracy: 61% vs 52%
favors Hernandez
Submission threat: 1.6/15min vs 0.4/15min
favors Hernandez
Swept 19 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:13 AM ET