FinalSola def. Ziam — KO/TKO — Punch, Round 1, 1:40APEX had it wrong
APEX picks
Farés Ziam versus Axel Sola — Ziam to win
54% Ziam · 46% Sola54%
Lean call — near even
Capped at 85% by design
APEX reads54%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged58%Ziam -155
AgreesBoth sides favour Ziam; the line is 5 points more confident than APEX. Shown for comparison — the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why — the drivers
Recent form (last 5)the last five boutsZiam: 4-1Sola: 2-1Leans toward Ziam.
Finish rateof career winsZiam: 25%Sola: 100%Leans toward Sola.
Striking volumesig. strikes landed / minZiam: 2.7Sola: 4.5Leans toward Sola.
Knockdown powerknockdowns / 15 minZiam: 0.21Sola: 0.94Leans toward Sola.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwZiam: 52%Sola: 50%Leans toward Ziam.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledZiam: 27%Sola: 24%Leans toward Ziam.
Career recordshown for context — not part of the pickZiam: 18-6-0Sola: 13-1-1Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
UFC samplethin on one sideZiam: 145′Sola: 32′Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Ziam leads on recent form (last 5); Sola leads on finish rate and striking volume.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favours; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges — they never push the pick toward either fighter.
Thin UFC sample on at least one side, so the read is damped toward an even fight before the probability is formed.
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