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UFC Fight Night: ParisFeatherweight3 RoundsSat, Sep 5
Red Corner
Trevor
Peek
9-3-0 Switch · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Kurtis
Campbell
8-1-0 Switch · England
21Peek
79Campbell · Favored
Pick · Kurtis Campbell · SOLIDModel reads 79%Capped at 85% by design
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
KO / TKOSubDec
Campbell39%12%28%
Peek13%2%6%
Goes the distance34%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
29%
R1
24%
R2
13%
R3
R4
R5
34%
Dist
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 5 and 1; Campbell's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Campbell by KO/TKO (39%). 66% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Campbell
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 4-1
favors Campbell
Career record: 9-3-0 vs 8-1-0
favors Campbell
Age: 31 vs 23
favors Campbell
Layoff — Peek: 23 months out
favors Campbell
Durability (KO losses): 0 vs 1 in UFC
favors Peek
Takedown pace: 1.4/15min vs 8.8/15min
favors Campbell
Swept 13 / 9 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:03 AM ET