Red Corner
Dustin
Jacoby
Jacoby
22-9-1 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Muhammad
Said
Said
9-0-0 -- · Russia
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
61%
Dustin Jacoby -175
Model reads
54%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -7
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby | 29% | 6% | 19% |
| Said | 23% | 9% | 14% |
Goes the distance33%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 15 and 0. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Jacoby by KO/TKO (29%). 67% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Jacoby
Career record: 22-9-1 vs 9-0-0
favors Said
Recent form (last 5): 3-2 vs 5-0
favors Said
Age: 38 vs 30
favors Said
Reach: 76" vs —
favors Jacoby
Durability (KO losses): 2 vs 0 in UFC
favors Said
Finish rate: 62% vs 89% of wins
favors Said
Swept 20 / 9 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:11 AM ET