Red Corner
Cody
Gibson
Gibson
22-12-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Abdul
Hussein
Hussein
15-2-0 Orthodox · Finland
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
81%
Abdul Hussein -550
Model reads
85%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -7
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hussein | 33% | 30% | 25% |
| Gibson | 4% | 3% | 5% |
Goes the distance30%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 10 and 0; Gibson's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Hussein by KO/TKO (33%). 70% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Hussein
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 5-0
favors Hussein
Career record: 22-12-0 vs 15-2-0
favors Hussein
Age: 38 vs 28
favors Hussein
Reach: 71" vs —
favors Gibson
Finish rate: 55% vs 93% of wins
favors Hussein
Durability (KO losses): 1 vs 0 in UFC
favors Hussein
Swept 20 / 17 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:16 AM ET