Red Corner
Magomed
Ankalaev
Ankalaev
21-2-1 Orthodox · Russia
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Bogdan
Guskov
Guskov
18-3-1 Orthodox · Uzbekistan
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
81%
Magomed Ankalaev -535
Model reads
76%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -5
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ankalaev | 38% | 8% | 30% |
| Guskov | 16% | 5% | 4% |
Goes the distance34%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 16 and 6; Ankalaev's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Ankalaev by KO/TKO (38%). 66% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Ankalaev
Recent form (last 5): 3-1-1 vs 4-0-1
favors Guskov
Career record: 21-2-1 vs 18-3-1
favors Ankalaev
Knockdown power: 0.47/15min vs 1.38/15min
favors Guskov
Finish rate: 56% vs 100% of wins
favors Guskov
Striking volume: 3.6/min vs 4.6/min
favors Guskov
Submission threat: 0.0/15min vs 0.7/15min
favors Guskov
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:16 AM ET