Red Corner
Abubakar
Vagaev
Vagaev
24-4-0 -- · Russia
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Saygid
Izagakhmaev
Izagakhmaev
22-3-0 -- · Russia
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
69%
Abubakar Vagaev -250
Model reads
64%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -5
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vagaev | 20% | 7% | 37% |
| Izagakhmaev | 11% | 10% | 14% |
Goes the distance52%
Round projection
Likely goes the distance
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 0 and 1. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Vagaev by Decision (37%). 48% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Vagaev
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 4-1
favors Vagaev
Reach: — vs 74"
favors Izagakhmaev
Layoff — Vagaev: 18 months out
favors Izagakhmaev
Durability (KO losses): 3 vs 0 in UFC
favors Izagakhmaev
Finish rate: 18% vs 65% of wins
favors Izagakhmaev
Career record: 24-4-0 vs 22-3-0
favors Izagakhmaev
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:16 AM ET