Red Corner
Mike
Davis
Davis
12-3-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Nurullo
Aliev
Aliev
11-0-0 Orthodox · Tajikistan
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
67%
Nurullo Aliev -230
Model reads
74%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -7
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aliev | 23% | 8% | 42% |
| Davis | 14% | 5% | 7% |
Goes the distance49%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 7 and 3. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Aliev by Decision (42%). 51% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Aliev
Career record: 12-3-0 vs 11-0-0
favors Aliev
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 5-0
favors Aliev
Age: 33 vs 25
favors Aliev
Finish rate: 83% vs 18% of wins
favors Davis
Knockdown power: 0.54/15min vs 0.00/15min
favors Davis
Striking volume: 4.3/min vs 2.7/min
favors Davis
Swept 15 / 11 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:14 AM ET