Red Corner
Magomed
Zaynukov
Zaynukov
8-0-0 Orthodox · Russia
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Damian
Rzepecki
Rzepecki
10-0-0 -- · Poland
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
72%
Magomed Zaynukov -305
Model reads
67%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -5
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zaynukov | 33% | 7% | 27% |
| Rzepecki | 13% | 10% | 10% |
Goes the distance37%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 0 and 0. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Zaynukov by KO/TKO (33%). 63% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Zaynukov
Age: 31 vs 24
favors Rzepecki
Reach: 68" vs 73.5"
favors Rzepecki
Finish rate: 63% vs 90% of wins
favors Rzepecki
Swept 8 / 10 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:13 AM ET