Red Corner
Ismael
Bonfim
Bonfim
20-6-0 Orthodox · Brazil
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Axel
Sola
Sola
11-1-1 Southpaw · France
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
63%
Axel Sola -192
Model reads
70%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -7
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sola | 35% | 10% | 26% |
| Bonfim | 14% | 5% | 11% |
Goes the distance37%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 5 and 2; Bonfim's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Sola by KO/TKO (35%). 63% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Sola
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 4-1
favors Sola
Career record: 20-6-0 vs 11-1-1
favors Sola
Striking volume: 5.5/min vs 4.1/min
favors Bonfim
Durability (KO losses): 2 vs 0 in UFC
favors Sola
Reach: 71.5" vs 74"
favors Sola
Striking accuracy: 54% vs 46%
favors Bonfim
Swept 20 / 13 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:12 AM ET