Red Corner
Wellington
Turman
Turman
18-8-0 Orthodox · Brazil
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Islam
Dulatov
Dulatov
12-1-0 Orthodox · Germany
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
87%
Islam Dulatov -1000
Model reads
85%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -7
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dulatov | 56% | 22% | 16% |
| Turman | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Goes the distance19%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 9 and 1; Turman on a 24+ month layoff. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Dulatov by KO/TKO (56%). 81% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Dulatov
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 5-0
favors Dulatov
Career record: 18-8-0 vs 12-1-0
favors Dulatov
Layoff — Turman: 32 months out
favors Dulatov
Knockdown power: 0.00/15min vs 4.39/15min
favors Dulatov
Age: 30 vs 27
favors Dulatov
Finish rate: 50% vs 100% of wins
favors Dulatov
Swept 20 / 13 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:11 AM ET