Red Corner
Ramazan
Temirov
Temirov
19-3-0 Orthodox · Uzbekistan
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Steve
Erceg
Erceg
14-4-0 Orthodox · Australia
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
50%
Ramazan Temirov -108
Model reads
57%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▲ +7
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temirov | 30% | 7% | 19% |
| Erceg | 13% | 12% | 18% |
Goes the distance37%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 2 and 8. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Temirov by KO/TKO (30%). 63% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Temirov
Recent form (last 5): 5-0 vs 2-3
favors Temirov
Career record: 19-3-0 vs 14-4-0
favors Temirov
Layoff — Temirov: 17 months out
favors Erceg
Knockdown power: 2.52/15min vs 0.13/15min
favors Temirov
Reach: 63" vs 68"
favors Erceg
Durability (KO losses): 0 vs 1 in UFC
favors Temirov
Swept 20 / 18 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:13 AM ET