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UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. GuskovHeavyweight3 RoundsSat, Jul 25
Red Corner
Rizvan
Kuniev
13-3-1 Orthodox · Russia
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Tyrell
Fortune
18-3-0 -- · USA
69Kuniev · Favored
31Fortune
Pick · Rizvan Kuniev · STRONGModel reads 69% · Vegas (de-vigged) 74% · nudge -5Capped at 85% by design
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
74%
Rizvan Kuniev -340
Model reads
69%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -5
points vs market
How it likely ends
KO / TKOSubDec
Kuniev31%11%27%
Fortune14%5%12%
Goes the distance39%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
25%
R1
20%
R2
15%
R3
—
R4
—
R5
39%
Dist
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 2 and 1. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Kuniev by KO/TKO (31%). 61% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Kuniev
Recent form (last 5): 3-1-1 vs 4-1
favors Fortune
Career record: 13-3-1 vs 18-3-0
favors Fortune
Durability (KO losses): 0 vs 1 in UFC
favors Kuniev
Finish rate: 62% vs 67% of wins
favors Fortune
Swept 18 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:13 AM ET