Final · Tommy McMillen wins · KO/TKO — Punches · R3
Red Corner
Alberto
Montes
Montes
12-2-0 Orthodox · Venezuela
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Tommy
McMillen
McMillen
11-0-0 Orthodox · USA
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| McMillen | 42% | 23% | 17% |
| Montes | 5% | 7% | 6% |
Goes the distance23%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 3 and 2; Montes's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: McMillen by KO/TKO (42%). 77% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors McMillen
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 5-0
favors McMillen
Career record: 12-2-0 vs 11-0-0
favors McMillen
Striking volume: 4.7/min vs 13.5/min
favors McMillen
Age: 32 vs 28
favors McMillen
Knockdown power: 0.00/15min vs 1.39/15min
favors McMillen
Reach: 69" vs 74"
favors McMillen
Swept 14 / 11 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:06 AM ET