Final · Vinicius Oliveira wins · KO/TKO — Elbows · R2
Red Corner
Andre
Fili
Fili
25-14-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Vinicius
Oliveira
Oliveira
24-4-0 Switch · Brazil
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliveira | 45% | 11% | 27% |
| Fili | 6% | 2% | 9% |
Goes the distance36%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 20 and 6; Fili's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Oliveira by KO/TKO (45%). 64% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Oliveira
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 4-1
favors Oliveira
Career record: 25-14-0 vs 24-4-0
favors Oliveira
Age: 36 vs 30
favors Oliveira
Striking accuracy: 38% vs 48%
favors Oliveira
Finish rate: 22% vs 69% of wins
favors Oliveira
Reach: 74" vs 70.5"
favors Fili
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:01 AM ET