Final · Murtazali Magomedov wins · Submission — Twister · R1
Red Corner
Melsik
Baghdasaryan
Baghdasaryan
8-4-0 Southpaw · Armenia
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Murtazali
Magomedov
Magomedov
11-0-0 Orthodox · Kyrgyzstan
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magomedov | 41% | 31% | 13% |
| Baghdasaryan | 8% | 2% | 6% |
Goes the distance19%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 6 and 1; Baghdasaryan's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Magomedov by KO/TKO (41%). 81% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Magomedov
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 5-0
favors Magomedov
Career record: 8-4-0 vs 11-0-0
favors Magomedov
Age: 34 vs 26
favors Magomedov
Takedown pace: 0.0/15min vs 5.2/15min
favors Magomedov
Striking accuracy: 59% vs 48%
favors Baghdasaryan
Finish rate: 63% vs 100% of wins
favors Magomedov
Swept 12 / 11 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:05 AM ET