Final · Christian Rodriguez wins · Submission — Guillotine Choke · R1
Red Corner
Christian
Rodriguez
Rodriguez
13-4-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Hyder
Amil
Amil
11-3-0 Switch · Philippines
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodriguez | 22% | 19% | 23% |
| Amil | 17% | 6% | 13% |
Goes the distance36%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 10 and 6. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Rodriguez by Decision (23%). 64% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Rodriguez
Age: 28 vs 36
favors Rodriguez
Recent form (last 5): 2-3 vs 2-3
favors Rodriguez
Striking volume: 3.9/min vs 5.8/min
favors Amil
Takedown pace: 1.8/15min vs 0.5/15min
favors Rodriguez
Career record: 13-4-0 vs 11-3-0
favors Amil
Durability (KO losses): 0 vs 1 in UFC
favors Rodriguez
Swept 17 / 14 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:06 AM ET