Final · Manel Kape wins · KO/TKO — Punches · R3
Red Corner
Kyoji
Horiguchi
Horiguchi
36-6-0 Orthodox · Japan
VS
5 Rounds
Blue Corner
Manel
Kape
Kape
23-7-0 Southpaw · Portugal
Market anchor
No line posted for this bout — a stats-only read, so the confidence tier is capped.
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kape | 38% | 9% | 15% |
| Horiguchi | 15% | 9% | 13% |
Goes the distance29%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 3 and 11; Horiguchi's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Kape by KO/TKO (38%). 71% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Kape
Recent form (last 5): 4-1 vs 4-1
favors Kape
Career record: 36-6-0 vs 23-7-0
favors Horiguchi
Reach: 63" vs 68"
favors Kape
Age: 35 vs 32
favors Kape
Durability (KO losses): 3 vs 0 in UFC
favors Kape
Knockdown power: 0.75/15min vs 0.86/15min
favors Kape
Swept 20 / 20 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 11:04 AM ET