Red Corner
Jan
Blachowicz
Blachowicz
29-11-2 Orthodox · Poland
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Navajo
Stirling
Stirling
10-0-0 Orthodox · New Zealand
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
70%
Navajo Stirling -265
Model reads
77%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -7
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stirling | 40% | 8% | 29% |
| Blachowicz | 9% | 4% | 9% |
Goes the distance38%
Round projection
Finish likely — late
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 20 and 5. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Stirling by KO/TKO (40%). 62% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Stirling
Recent form (last 5): 1-2-2 vs 5-0
favors Stirling
Career record: 29-11-2 vs 10-0-0
favors Stirling
Age: 43 vs 28
favors Stirling
Striking volume: 3.6/min vs 6.2/min
favors Stirling
Durability (KO losses): 1 vs 0 in UFC
favors Stirling
Knockdown power: 0.38/15min vs 0.64/15min
favors Stirling
Swept 20 / 10 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:18 AM ET