Red Corner
Gilbert
Urbina
Urbina
7-5-0 Orthodox · USA
VS
3 Rounds
Blue Corner
Vlasto
Čepo
Čepo
14-3-0 -- · Serbia
Market anchor
Vegas (de-vigged)
75%
Vlasto Čepo -340
Model reads
82%
Market-anchored
Engine nudge
▼ -7
points vs market
How it likely ends
| KO / TKO | Sub | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Čepo | 43% | 18% | 21% |
| Urbina | 7% | 4% | 7% |
Goes the distance28%
Round projection
Finish likely — early
Exact round is withheld — needs 9+ UFC fights each — have 4 and 0; Urbina's chin cracked in a recent fight. The engine only commits a round when the sample earns it.
Why — the drivers
Most likely path: Čepo by KO/TKO (43%). 72% chance of a finish.
Highest single-outcome probability on the board.
favors Čepo
Recent form (last 5): 1-4 vs 4-1
favors Čepo
Career record: 7-5-0 vs 14-3-0
favors Čepo
Reach: 75" vs —
favors Urbina
Durability (KO losses): 3 vs 1 in UFC
favors Čepo
Finish rate: 57% vs 100% of wins
favors Čepo
Swept 12 / 17 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of Jul 24, 10:17 AM ET